It's been a while since i've posted here until today but a long sleepless time due to a combination of caffeine and noisy neighbours got me thinking this theory through, so here we go:
The Colony will fall in the short term, but why? I reckon it will fail but only by the combination of several internal and external influences, these ideas being:
1. CJ/Victor/Saul Covert Operations - unlikely to succeed on its own accord IMO - it's still not clear what CJ's plan is but appears to be:
Insert Victor, find Lizzy, find friendlies, supply with weapons, encourage coup over Mallers, walk away with Lizzy and spare parts for sat phone?
Some major if's and but's in this plan, and Lizzy is major league preggers and not really in a great situation to leave the safety and medical support supplied by the colony; plus i doubt she will now leave without Brick's and Burt - this is going to blow a massive hole in CJ's plan.
2. The Colony is on Fort Irwins radar (it is only a matter of time)- Michael's intel of the Colony and Fort Irwins survivor search misson mean a rescue mission is forthcoming, its may not be a priority but will eventually happen, and maybe at the same time a coup starts.
3. Internal problems - Lizzy is encouraging Bricks to spill the beans on Scratch. I foresee this won't be good for all parties, Durai will raise this with Scratch, Scratch will try to kill him, and it will end up with the Colony falling (without stable Family leadership) Scratch being captured, eventually learning about where the survivors go and then escaping/fleeing to Boulder seeking out Pegs..
So what about the main players/and minor league characters?
Burt - going to die at the Colony at the hands of Stratch
Bricks - going to die protecting Lizzy
CJ - die getting Lizzy and Saul back together
Lizzy and child / Saul - survive and be reunited together
Victor - lead a coup and survive
Durai - die by Stratch's second knife
Stratch - is so going to survive and hunt Pegs down..!.
Pete (the water boy) - so going to die just for eating that chicken!